Most crypto bettors on decentralized prediction market Polymarket don’t expect Telegram CEO Pavel Durov, who was detained this month, to be released.
According to Polymarket data, there is only a 39% chance that Durov will be released in August, and the stock is trading at 39 cents at the time of writing. However, bettors are more optimistic, predicting a 78% chance of him being released before October.
According to data from Polymarket, these bets have amassed positions worth $600,000 as of the time of writing.
Prediction markets allow users from various regions to gather insights about future events. Since participants have a financial stake, prediction markets often provide less biased predictions. These markets have become particularly popular in the past year due to the upcoming US elections.
Legal Issues
Durov was arrested on August 24, 2024 at Le Bourget Airport near Paris and remains in custody as part of a wide-ranging investigation.
The investigation included serious allegations including facilitating illicit trade, refusing to cooperate with law enforcement, engaging in child pornography and drug distribution, organized fraud, money laundering, and illegal provision of encryption tools.
French President Emmanuel Macron commented on the arrests, stressing that it was a legal matter and had no political implications. He said:
“The arrest of the Telegram president on French soil was made as part of an ongoing judicial investigation. This is not a political decision in any sense. It is for the judges to decide on this matter.”
At the same time, reports are emerging that his application for Telegram is being closely scrutinized in India, but there is no immediate threat of a ban.
According to reports, India’s Cyber Crime Investigation Bureau is investigating whether Telegram could be misused for criminal activities and may ban it if necessary.
Support for Durov
Meanwhile, Durov’s arrest has drawn significant attention from the legal and cryptocurrency communities, with critics including whistleblower Edward Snowden and tech entrepreneur Elon Musk denouncing the arrest as an attack on free speech.
Likewise, cryptocurrency stakeholders including Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and Tron blockchain founder Justin Sun have expressed their opposition to the arrests.
In addition, the UAE also intervened and requested consular services for Durov.
Durov holds citizenship in several countries, including the UAE, France, Russia and Saint Kitts and Nevis.