This is part 1 of a 2 part MIT News A feature article examining new job creation in the United States since 1940, based on new research by Ford economics professor David Autor. Part 2 can be viewed here.
In 1900, Orville and Wilbur Wright listed their occupation on their U.S. census form as “merchant, bicycle.” Three years later, they made their famous first airplane flight in Kitty Hawk, North Carolina. So in the next U.S. census in 1910, each of the brothers called themselves “Inventor, Airplane.” But there weren’t that many people at the time, and it wasn’t until 1950 that ‘airplane designer’ was recognized as a census category.
Although their case is unique, the Wright brothers’ story tells us something important about employment in America today. According to the U.S. Census, most jobs in the United States are new. That said, most jobs are in occupations that emerged widely after 1940, according to a major new study of American jobs led by MIT economist David Autor.
“We estimate that about six out of 10 jobs that people do today did not exist in 1940,” says Autor, co-author of a newly published paper detailing the results. “A lot of the things we do today, no one was doing back then. “Most modern jobs require specialized knowledge that did not exist or was relevant at the time.”
The findings, which cover the period from 1940 to 2018, have broader implications. First of all, technology creates many new jobs. But not everything. Some comes from consumer demand, such as health care jobs for an aging population.
On another note, the study shows a notable gap in new job creation in recent years. In the first 40 years of the period 1940–2018, many new jobs were in middle-class manufacturing and clerical jobs, but over the past 40 years, new jobs have often been created in high-wage professional or low-wage service jobs.
Finally, this study provides new data on challenging questions. To what extent does technology create new jobs and to what extent does it replace jobs?
The paper “New Frontiers: Origins and Content of New Work, 1940-2018” is published in . Quarterly economic journal. Co-authors include Autor, the Ford Professor of Economics at MIT; Caroline Chin, a doctoral student in economics at MIT; Anna Salomons, professor of economics at Utrecht University; and Bryan Seegmiller SM ’20, PhD ’22, assistant professor at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School.
“This is the most difficult and in-depth project of my research career,” adds Autor. “I think we’ve made progress in areas where we didn’t know we could make progress.”
“Technician, nails”
To conduct the study, scholars delved into government data on jobs and patents, using natural language processing techniques to identify relevant descriptions in patents and census data to link innovation and subsequent job creation. The U.S. Census Bureau tracks new job descriptions provided by respondents, such as those recorded by the Wright brothers. Every decade, the Occupational Index lists approximately 35,000 occupations and 15,000 professional variations.
Many new jobs are the result of new technologies that create new forms of labor. For example, “computer applications engineer” was first codified in 1970, “circuit layout designer” debuted in 1990, and “solar electrician” debuted in 2018.
“There are so many different types of expertise that are really specific to a skill or service,” says Autor. “This is a huge quantitative problem.”
He added: “As we rebuild the power grid, we will create new jobs, not only electricians but also solar electricians. Eventually it becomes a specialty. The first purpose of our study is to measure. [this kind of process]; The second is to show what it reacts to and how it happens. The third is to show how automation impacts employment.”
But on the second point, innovation is not the only way new jobs emerge. Consumer wants and needs also create new jobs. According to the paper, “tattooer” became a U.S. census occupational category in 1950, “hypnotherapist” was codified in 1980, and “meeting planner” was codified in 1990. its role; At the point when enough people have those occupations, the Bureau recognizes them as a substantial employment category. For example, ‘Technicians, Nails’ became a category in 2000.
“It’s not just technology that creates new jobs, it’s new demands,” says Autor. The aging baby boomer generation may create new roles for personal care assistants, which are now emerging as a viable career category.
Among “professionals,” essentially professional white-collar workers, about 74 percent of the region’s jobs were created after 1940. In the “health services” category — the personal services aspect of health care, including general health aides, occupational therapy assistants, etc. — about 85% of jobs were created simultaneously. In contrast, in the manufacturing sector, the figure is only 46%.
Differences by degree
The fact that some employment sectors provide relatively more new jobs than others has been one of the key features of the U.S. jobs environment over the past 80 years. And one of the most surprising things about that period in terms of jobs is that it consists of two fairly distinct 40-year periods.
During the first four decades, from 1940 to about 1980, the United States became a postwar manufacturing powerhouse, with production jobs growing and middle-class clerical and other white-collar jobs growing in these industries.
But over the past 40 years, manufacturing in the United States began to decline and office jobs began to disappear due to automation. From 1980 to the present, there have been two main paths to new jobs. That is, there are different types, including high-skilled and specialized jobs and low-wage service sector jobs. As the authors write in their paper, the United States has seen a “pervasive polarization of occupational structures.”
This is consistent with education level. Studies have shown that employees with at least college experience are about 25 percent more likely to be working in a new job than employees with a high school diploma or less.
“The real concern is for whom the new work is being created,” says Autor. “The first period, from 1940 to 1980, created many jobs for people without college degrees, white-collar and blue-collar jobs, and middle-skill jobs. In the second half, there is a two-pronged pattern: new jobs for college graduates increasingly in professional fields, and new jobs for non-college graduates increasingly in service fields.”
But Autor adds: “This could change a lot. “We are in a period of potentially consequential technological transition.”
At present, it is unclear how and to what extent evolving technologies such as artificial intelligence will impact the workplace. However, this is also the main issue addressed in the current study. To what extent do new technologies increase employment by creating new and viable jobs, and to what extent do new technologies replace existing jobs through automation? In their paper, Autor and his colleagues report new findings on the topic, which are described in Part 2 of this paper. MIT News series.
Support for the research was provided in part by the Carnegie Corporation. Google; Each research institute; MIT’s work on the Future Task Force; Schmidt Futures; Smith Richardson Foundation; Washington Center for Equitable Growth.